Mar 132011
 

India’s defeat against South Africa today was very painful, not because of the loss per se, but because we squandered two wonderful opportunities to win it. One in the 40th over where despite being 267 for 1, India collapsed to 296 all out. And the other in the death overs where tighter bowling could have still got us home.

More than the match loss, it was plain disappointing to see Sachin haters dishing the usual ignorant tripe about how India loses every time he scores a century. After years of unsuccessfully searching for reasons to put down Sachin’s record because of his 21 year career at the pinnacle of cricket, uncontroversial career and humble image, the haters have settled for frivolous reasons like Sachin’s centuries being unlucky for India.

To firmly discredit such irrational theories being floated, I dug up some stats to determine if there is truly a corelation between Sachin’s centuries and India’s defeats. My stats dont contain the world cup data so its behind by 3 matches.

Lets do the Simplest math first:

India has won 33 times out of 45 (73.33%) when Sachin has scored a century. Two of the matches had ended up in no result

Now for the more in depth analysis. These are the 12 matches when Sachin had lost. This is the query that I used for analyzing this.

select /*m.id,m.scorecard_url,*/ pbs.runs_scored as Sachin_Score,
	   i.runs as Team_Score,
	   CASE when i.match_innings = 1
		    then "Batting_First"
			when i.Match_innings = 2
			then "Chasing"
	   End as "Team position",
	   ceil((pbs.runs_scored/pbs.balls_faced)*100) as Strike_Rate,
	   pbs.departure_score as Departure_Score
	/*   pbs.departure_wickets as Departure_Wickets, */
	   /*pbs.departure_overs as Departure_Overs,
	   round((pbs.departure_score - pbs.arrival_score)/(pbs.departure_overs),2) as RunRate_duringStay,
	   round((i.runs-pbs.departure_score)/(i.overs-pbs.departure_overs),2) as RunRate_afterStay,
	   round(i.overs-pbs.departure_overs,2) as Overs_afterStay,
	   round((i.runs/i.overs),2) as MatchRunRate
	  /* (pbs.runs_scored/i.runs)*100  as Percentage_of_teamScore,*/
	    /*t.Name as opposing_team,
		m.win_margin,
		m.win_margin_type, 
	    Team_Scores.runs as Oppositon_Score
Oppn_Scores.cname,
		max(Oppn_Scores.runs_scored)*/
	    from Players p,
              PlayerBattingStats pbs,
			 Matches m,
			 Innings i,
			 Teams t,
			 (select matchid,runs,batting_teamid from Innings) Team_Scores,
		 (Select p1.cname,pbs1.matchid,runs_scored,i1.batting_teamid from Players p1,PlayerBattingStats pbs1,Innings i1
					where p1.id = pbs1.playerid and pbs1.matchid = i1.matchid) Oppn_Scores
		where p.id = pbs.playerid and
			  pbs.matchid = m.id and
			  i.matchid = m.id and
			  m.id = Team_Scores.matchid and
		       Team_Scores.batting_teamid <> 6 and
			  m.id = Oppn_Scores.matchid and
			  Oppn_Scores.batting_teamid <> 6 and
			  m.winning_teamid = t.id and
		      m.matchtype = 'ODI' and
			  (m.winning_teamid <> 6 or m.winning_teamid is null) and
			  i.batting_teamid = 6 and
			  pbs.runs_scored >= 100 and
			  p.cname = 'Sachin Tendulkar'
group by pbs.runs_scored ,
	   i.runs;
			--  order by Percentage_of_teamScore desc;

It is notable that Sachin scored more than 45% of the entire team’s runs on 9 of these 12 occasions that India lost. So In effect he was carrying the whole batting alone. And there were only 3 occasions chasing where he was expected to get India home. But an overwhelming majority of 9 times, India was the team batting first and the bowlers were unable to defend targets ranging from 328 to 224

The next reason touted is that Sachin bats too slow to get to his century. This is also not true. 10 times out of 12, Sachin scored at a strike rate of 80 or above. 8 times out of 12, the Strike rate was 90+. When chasing, Sachin’s centuries have come at more than a run a ball.

Next is the run rate, out of the 12 occasions for 4 Sachin carried his bat throught the innings, and pretty much made sure the team reached a decent total. On the other 8 occasions, there is only .5 increase in run rate after Sachin lost his wicket to the match run rate. Even this increase can be attributed to the aggressive batting in the death overs. During chasing under pressure, there is actually a dip after Sachin loses his wicket showing the inability of following batsmen to handle pressure.

There are a lot of other stats that can be displayed to reinforce this fact, eg the Indian’s bowlers economy rate or the misfields and dropped catches by the fielders. At the end of the day, Cricket is a team game and it takes more than one player to win a match for a country. An individual brilliant performance can only do so much to get a team near victory, but it takes the rest of the team to also chip to cross the finish line. Its about time, few of us stop blaming one individual for the mistakes of 10 others.